Nuclear War: A Scenario by Annie Jacobsen
My rating: 5 of 5 stars

Amazon.in Page

Release Date: March 28, 2024

Annie Jacobsen’s new book is fascinating and — quite frankly — horrifying from cover to cover. The book presents a hypothetical minute by minute unfolding of events that culminate in full-scale nuclear war and the end of the world as we know it. A four-hundred-page book that breaks down the events of an hour may sound like a recipe for tedium, like Joyce’s seven-hundred-plus page elaboration of the events of a single day in “Ulysses.” But, it is anything but. There is so much to explore amid the concepts like “the nuclear football” and MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction,) and EMP’s (Electromagnetic Pulse weapons.) There is also so much to go wrong, and much that is virtually certainly go wrong.

That last sentence might suggest that the book takes an excessively pessimistic view to create drama. Sadly, it does not need to. The ultra-fast timeline of nuclear calculus does the work of ensuring that many things will go terrifyingly and irreparably wrong. Decision makers have a short window to make decisions, and “use-’em-or-lose-’em” thinking plays a major role in decision making. (i.e. One can’t count on delaying a decision about a counter response because one’s delivery infrastructure — notably, the human bit of it — will likely be destroyed if one absorbs the first strike.) There is also the fact that — counter to all the abort buttons seen in the movies — once missiles are launched, there is no way to stop them. [A bit of “Dr. Strangelove” writ into the system.] At many of the points at which it may seem that Jacobsen is being pessimistic for effect, she explains the basis for her pessimism: from historical events like the failure of the nuclear hotline to commentary by experts.

Lest one think that nuclear warfare is a threat of the past, and that it’s a solved problem, Jacobsen’s scenario reminds us that it’s not just a matter of NATO v the Warsaw Pact (i.e. America v the USSR in the common conception) anymore. She does this by using North Korea as the instigator. We don’t ever learn the Kims’ theoretical motivation, but all one really needs to know to make one nervous is that the DPRK has been quite happy playing the role of pariah, engaging in a number of activities in violation of international law and norms, as well as that Kim Jong Un might just believe some of the ridiculous things his yes-men tell him. (Not to mention the famines and other destabilizing conditions that could lead some other inside actor or group of actors to take unanticipated actions.) The truly disturbing part is to see how easily a strike by the DPRK could draw Russia or possibly China into the nuclear exchange. [Russia because it’s in the path between the US and the DPRK, and China because it could suffer massive casualties from strikes on North Korean facilities near the border that send radiation to sizable Chinese population centers.]

This book is a must-read for anyone who thinks nuclear weapons are the problem of a bygone era.

View all my reviews