BOOK: “Gut Feelings” by Gerd Gigerenzer

Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the UnconsciousGut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious by Gerd Gigerenzer
My rating: 4 of 5 stars

Publisher Website – Penguin

Like Malcolm Gladwell’s Blink, Gut Feelings explores the circumstances under which intuitive decision-making has been shown to outperform rigorous and systematic reasoning. Gigerenzer is a psychologist and the Director of the Max Planck Institute for Human Development.

The central idea of this book is that our brains have evolved to engage in intuitive decision making, and that sometimes what looks like sloppy thinking has underlying benefits. Take – for example – the fact that many times people are asked a question that they don’t know the answer to, but they exploit their selective ignorance in a way that allows them to not only outperform those more ignorant than they, but also those less ignorant. Gigerenzer uses the example of students asked whether Milwaukee or Detroit has a bigger population. Often those who’ve only heard of one of the cities will guess that the one they know is bigger, and this tends to be right more often than not. Students familiar with both cities (but not knowing the precise answer) are more likely to stumble.

The book suggests that we tend to decide based on one key factor rather than the full “pros and cons” list for which many teachers and leaders advocate. The book has a fascinating chapter on how this all applies to healthcare decision-making. It provides insight into why the American healthcare system is so screwed up (high cost, low health outcomes.)

If you are interested in decision-making and the divergence between what we are taught to do and what most of us actually do most of the time (and why,) I’d highly recommend this book.

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PROMPT: Superstitious

Daily writing prompt
Are you superstitious?

No. I’ve trained myself to recognize factors, such as selection bias, that contribute to superstitions. And I try to hold all beliefs only so tightly as they can be shaken away by better understanding, particularly beliefs that aren’t strongly supported by experience and reason.

Five Wise Lines [September 2024]

No country has ever benefited from a long war.

Sūnzi’s art of war (孙子兵法,) ch. 2

Humans are good intuitive grammarians but poor intuitive statisticians.

Daniel kahneman in Thinking, fast and slow

The highest form of leadership is to attack the enemy’s plans; the next highest is to attack the cohesion of their forces; the next is to attack their troops, and the worst is to besiege their cities.

Sūnzi’s Art of war (孙子兵法,) Ch.3

Laziness is built deep into our nature.

Daniel Kahneman in Thinking, Fast and Slow

War is the Way of deception.

Sūnzi’s Art of war (孙子兵法), Ch. 1

PROMPT: Lose Track of Time

Daily writing prompt
Which activities make you lose track of time?

Reading, thinking, and learning.

PROMPT: Don’t Understand

Daily writing prompt
What’s something most people don’t understand?

I’ve often been surprised how little intuitive grasp people have of basic mathematical or statistical ideas or relationships, even when they have had the education to understand with a little effort.

One example of this is what I call “unilateral mathematics” where people fixate on one term or side of an equation while ignoring that changing a term changes the equation’s other side (or to keep the other side static, something else has to give.) For example, I hear people getting so excited by the new salary they will earn when they move to a new place. Then they get to the new locale only to find that the cost of living is so much higher that even their hefty pay boost supports only a diminished quality of life. One sees this tendency a great deal in people’s policy discussions when someone will say, “just set a maximum (or minimum) price” without understanding that shortages or surpluses will come along for the ride. [The Law of Unintended Consequences is another good answer to this prompt.]

We all saw flaws in statistical thinking during the pandemic when people said things like, “See, she got the vaccine and then she got COVID, so obviously the vaccine doesn’t work!” I’m convinced this is because people don’t have good intuition for statistical thinking and — instead — they want to treat a low probability as an impossibility and a high probability as a certainty.

By the way, you see this from people of all persuasions, including those who are highly educated, conservatives, progressives, believers, atheists, etc. One can see the universality of the flaw most commonly in climate change comments. You’ll hear one person say, “See, it’s the hottest day on record, that’s evidence global warming is real!” Another person will say, “See, it’s the coldest day on record, global warming is obviously hokum!” Somehow, even with diametrically opposed viewpoints, these two manage to both be wrong because one day’s WEATHER is not instructive of what is happening to the CLIMATE. In other words, a sample of one provides no insight into state changes in the population. [Maybe it’s more appropriate to use Wolfgang Pauli’s terms and say the two are “not even wrong.”]

PROMPT: Superstitious

Are you superstitious?

Not even a little.

Queen of Slaves [Lyric Poem]

Of all the masters & all the slaves,
   I find that mind fire burns in waves.
 And sometimes the emotions derail
   too quickly to lengthen the exhale. 

 Trees falling in the forest, unheard,
   can still crush a nest of baby birds.
 Turns out it's not the sound that matters,
    but what the destruction leaves in tatters.

The phrase “Queen of Slaves” comes from a Percy Bysshe Shelley poem (Canto 4, No. 24)

BOOK REVIEW: Cognitive Neuroscience: A Very Short Introduction by Richard Passingham

Cognitive Neuroscience: A Very Short IntroductionCognitive Neuroscience: A Very Short Introduction by Richard Passingham
My rating: 4 of 5 stars

Amazon.in Page

This book provides a brief overview of cognitive neuroscience, a discipline that has really only been around for the past few decades, one that uses technologies allowing scientists to see what parts of the brain are active during a given mental activity. The reader learns what parts of the brain are involved in the various activities of being human from perception through action, and what can go wrong with these processes. While that sounds simple and straightforward, the immense complexity of the brain makes it anything but, and there is a lot of medical jargon and qualifying statements to explain how a given relationship between brain location and activity isn’t as simple or well understood as we are frequently led to believe. [Any plain and direct explanation of the brain workings is likely to be at best partial truth, and more likely outright deceptive.]

I found the organization of this book to be logical and conducive to learning about this complex and technical topic. The first chapter, “A Recent Field,” describes what cognitive neuroscience is and where it fits in among the various sciences that deal with mental activity including, psychology, psychiatry, etc. This gives one an idea of both how cognitive neuroscience can contribute to our understanding of mental activity, but also where its limitations lie and why it has not displaced all the other disciplines.

Chapters two through eight make up the core of the book and present an exploration of the various aspects of mental activity and what has been learned about them through studies in this field. The progression is logical and elementary: perception (Ch. 2,) attention (Ch. 3,) memory (Ch. 4,) reasoning (Ch. 5,) decision (Ch. 6,) confirmation / checking (Ch. 7,) and finally action (Ch. 8.) In each chapter practical questions are discussed, questions that will be of interest to readers whose goal is not vocabular expansion, in addition to the discussion of what brain region is involved with what activity. What kinds of questions? How amputees “feel” pain from the missing part of the body? Why humans suck at multitasking, and under what circumstances they can do better at it? How come people who have amnesia remember how to talk and engage in physical activities? Is there free will, and – if so – in what sense? Do we think in language? Etc.

The last chapter reflects upon the future of the discipline. Over the course of the book, the reader learns the limitations of what functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) and Positron Emission Tomography (PET) scans can tell one about what is happening with the brain, and in this chapter one is introduced to the next generation of technologies that may take our level of understanding to another level.

This book has an excellent feature that I don’t recall seeing in other AVSI books. (That is probably, in part, because many of them don’t need it like this one because their subject matter is more readily grasped.) Said feature is a text box at the beginning of the chapter that asks some relatively rudimentary and practical questions, and then – at the end of the chapter – those questions are answered in another box. I think the author recognized that there was a high degree of risk of losing readers if the entire book was, “and when you do decide how many minutes to microwave your Hot Pocket, the temporo-parietal junction works in conjunction with the …” [not an actual quote fragment] he would produce book of limited benefit. [i.e. it would be too technical for the neophyte reader who just wants some practical insight (the AVSI target demographic,) but not technical enough for students of brain anatomy.] These text boxes help keep the reader focused on what is being conveyed while not getting too caught up in arcane terminology.

Other ancillary matter includes graphics (photographs of technology and readouts and diagrams showing where brain areas are located,) references, and a further reading section.

I found this book to have some intriguing discussions on interesting topics. That said, those discussions are interlaced with some necessarily complicated and dense subject matter (that’s the nature of the discipline.) That said, I think the author recognized his challenge and the question boxes and answer boxes that bookended the core chapters were very useful in offering focus for a non-expert reader. It you want a bare-bones overview of cognitive neuroscience, it’s worth reading this slim volume.

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POEM: Thinking

I think,
but without Descartes’ insistence that I am.

In fact, the more I think, the less confident I am about knowing what “being” means.

I think — without knowing,
and recognize the hazard of that condition.
It’s what got Socrates killed.

A smart person who claims to know may raise hackles,
but is dismissed as arrogant.

It’s the smart person who admits he doesn’t know…
[let’s hope I’m not wrongly classed among them]
… that’s the one who arouses murderous intent.

For what hope exists for priests, professors, or politicians —
or any of the many oracles of our age —
when the most astute confess that uncertainty is inescapable?

What airy sands are our castles built upon?

And, yet, I think.

POEM: Nullius in Verba

nulliusinverba1

Said Socrates, “Oh, those poor bastards, for they think they know.

“I may be an ignorant slut, but I know I know not.”

[I paraphrase.]

My point, if I have one, is that “know” is an overused word.

Stinking up the discourse, like a bloated, floating pig turd.

[Remember Jim Carey, in the movie “Liar, Liar”]

“I object, Your Honor”… “Because, it’s devastating to my case.”

It’s a refrain seldom stated, but oft implied.

It works quite well, if you only talk to one side.

Fault us not for we’re wired to be certain.

If the cave wall shadow might be a tiger,

you don’t wait to see whether it’s a mouse.

That said, we’ve evolved these huge honking brains.

Our prefrontal cortexes might withstand the strain–

of asking:

How do I know this?

What if I’m wrong?

Might my mind deceive?

Facts: cherry-picked or  strong?