Biological War: A Scenario by Annie Jacobsen
My rating: 5 of 5 stars

Publisher site — Penguin

As in her last book, Jacobsen builds a horrifying scenario that is made all the more horrifying by a well-researched examination of the possibilities and probabilities of Weapons of Mass Destruction. The previous book imagined a hypothetical nuclear war started by North Korea. This one begins with an accidental lab leak of a “chimera” (a biological weapon that combines infectious agents to increase contagiousness, lethality, incurableness, or some combination thereof) from a Russian laboratory.

One might wonder how apt a title with “war” in it is for an accidental even. It turns out that even an accident might have to be treated an act of war. (Imagine the nation in which the accident takes place has built a working vaccine. That country might not have intended to release the weapon, but they may come to see military advantage in keeping the vaccine to themselves, letting enemies be weakened as other nations have to develop their own countermeasures from scratch [which we know from COVID can take many months — if not longer.])

Jacobsen does a fine job of mixing in moments in which outcomes are worse than one might expect with instances in which luck shines on people (i.e. the way the real world works.) In many cases, Jacobsen was able to draw from real world events that happened during the COVID pandemic, making adjustments for the very different nature of the infectious agent in this scenario. Building from the “fog of war” of COVID, the reader is shown how events might go wrong in ways that could at first blush seem unrealistic — except for the fact that similar missteps already happened in the real world.

As with Jacobsen’s book on nuclear war, the whole scenario takes place over only a few days, with an epilogue that reflects on the longer-term ramifications of the scenario.

I found this book hard to put down. It reads like a novel but with the added feasibility that comes with interviewing experts and studying the relevant history and policy. It is a scary scenario to be certain, but it keeps the reader engaged throughout. I’d highly recommend this book for all readers who can handle reading a doomsday scenario.

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